RallyIQ

Monterrey CH · SF · Hard · 7 Apr 2019

Alexander Bublik v Tennys Sandgren

92–100 in points · Alexander Bublik won

Why it went the way it did

Tennys Sandgren won 9.4 more points than Alexander Bublik relative to what the serve alone predicted. Alexander Bublik's biggest leaks: backhand execution −3.8, serve 1st execution −3.5, serve 2nd execution −2.8.

Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.

ShotAlexander BublikTennys Sandgren
DirSelExecTotalDirSelExecTotal
Serve 1st −0.6 +1.4 −3.5 −2.7 +0.1 ±0.0 +0.2 +0.3
Serve 2nd −0.3 +0.9 −2.8 −2.2 ±0.0 ±0.0 −1.0 −1.0
Return +0.1 −1.4 −1.8 −3.2 +0.1 +0.6 −8.0 −7.3
Forehand −0.9 +1.0 +0.8 +0.9 ±0.0 +1.7 −1.3 +0.4
Backhand +0.1 +0.4 −3.8 −3.3 −0.2 +0.5 −0.3 ±0.0
Slice +0.1 −2.7 −2.3 −4.9 −0.1 −1.9 −0.4 −2.5
Net −0.9 ±0.0 −1.3 −2.3 +0.5 +0.3 −0.5 +0.3
Touch ±0.0 −0.1 −0.7 −0.8 +0.2 −0.6 +1.1 +0.6
Other −0.1 −0.3 +0.2 −0.3 ±0.0 ±0.0 ±0.0 ±0.0
All shots −2.4−0.9 −15.2−18.6 +0.6+0.6 −10.4−9.2

Set by set

SetAlexander BublikTennys SandgrenNet, Alexander
1−12.2−1.5 −10.6
2−2.2−5.7 +3.4
3−4.2−2.0 −2.2

Adaptation

First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.

Alexander Bublik serving

SetWideBodyT
1 35% 35% 2% 0% 63% 60%
2 24% 50% 32% 75% 44% 73%
3 40% 71% 17% 57% 43% 61%

Set to set −1.12 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets −0.92 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Tennys Sandgren serving

SetWideBodyT
1 37% 86% 11% 100% 53% 80%
2 67% 50% 5% 100% 29% 50%
3 62% 70% 5% 50% 32% 75%

Set to set −0.92 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets −1.56 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Counterfactual: the best direction every time

If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.

Alexander Bublik

9.3 points left on the table across 217 shots 4.29 per 100 shots

  1. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×4; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 1.04 pts
  2. Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×3; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.74 pts
  3. Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
  4. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts

Tennys Sandgren

7.5 points left on the table across 240 shots 3.11 per 100 shots

  1. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.40 pts
  2. Return +1: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
  3. Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
  4. Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts