Lugano · R16 · Clay · 10 Apr 2019
Sorana Cirstea v Polona Hercog
95–102 in points · Polona Hercog won
Why it went the way it did
Polona Hercog won 2.7 more points than Sorana Cirstea relative to what the serve alone predicted. Sorana Cirstea's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −4.5, forehand execution −2.4, serve 1st execution −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Sorana Cirstea | Polona Hercog | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −1.7 | −1.9 | +0.6 | −0.1 | +1.5 | +2.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.4 | +1.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.8 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.8 | +1.0 | +1.8 | +0.4 | −0.5 | +0.9 | +0.8 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +2.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 | +1.3 | +4.5 | −2.8 | +2.9 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | −0.4 | +0.1 | −0.4 | −0.2 | +0.8 | −2.1 | −1.5 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −4.5 | −0.1 | −4.5 | −0.1 | −8.0 | +0.2 | −7.9 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.4 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +1.3 | +1.6 |
| Touch | −0.5 | −0.7 | −0.9 | −2.1 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | −1.5 | −1.1 |
| Other | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.5 | −2.9 | −3.1 | −6.5 | +2.6 | −3.2 | −3.3 | −3.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Sorana Cirstea | Polona Hercog | Net, Sorana | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.2 | −4.7 | +4.5 | |
| 2 | −5.4 | −1.5 | −3.8 | |
| 3 | −0.9 | +2.4 | −3.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Sorana Cirstea serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 70% | 23% 43% | 43% 69% |
| 2 | 27% 40% | 32% 42% | 41% 33% |
| 3 | 44% 36% | 20% 80% | 36% 33% |
Set to set −0.88 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.91 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Polona Hercog serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 50% | 23% 40% | 41% 44% |
| 2 | 46% 50% | 6% 67% | 48% 48% |
| 3 | 54% 58% | – | 46% 56% |
Set to set +0.48 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.43 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Sorana Cirstea
9.9 points left on the table across 393 shots 2.52 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle hit BH drop shot through the middle ×2; BH drop shot down the line rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
Polona Hercog
9.2 points left on the table across 394 shots 2.34 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×10; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.60 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.30 pts