Leon CH · R64 · Hard · 21 Apr 2019
Kevin King v Gonzalo Escobar
95–102 in points · Gonzalo Escobar won
Why it went the way it did
Gonzalo Escobar won 2.5 more points than Kevin King relative to what the serve alone predicted. Kevin King's biggest leaks: serve 2nd execution −3.2, net execution −2.3, slice shot selection −1.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Kevin King | Gonzalo Escobar | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | +0.5 | +1.3 | +1.9 | +0.3 | −0.2 | −2.7 | −2.6 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −3.2 | −3.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −2.3 | −2.4 |
| Return | −0.7 | +1.2 | +0.4 | +0.9 | +0.1 | +1.1 | −5.5 | −4.3 |
| Forehand | +0.5 | +2.1 | −1.4 | +1.2 | +0.4 | +4.0 | +2.1 | +6.6 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.9 | +1.1 | +1.9 | +0.2 | +0.6 | +0.9 | +1.7 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.4 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −0.2 | −1.0 | +0.2 | −1.0 |
| Net | −0.2 | −0.4 | −2.3 | −2.9 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +1.1 | +1.2 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.7 | +1.1 |
| All shots | −0.2 | +2.5 | −4.5 | −2.2 | +0.7 | +5.1 | −5.6 | +0.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Kevin King | Gonzalo Escobar | Net, Kevin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.7 | +0.5 | +2.2 | |
| 2 | −0.5 | −0.2 | −0.4 | |
| 3 | −4.4 | ±0.0 | −4.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Kevin King serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 69% | 3% 0% | 50% 71% |
| 2 | 54% 67% | 8% 67% | 38% 67% |
| 3 | 32% 71% | 18% 50% | 50% 45% |
Set to set −0.12 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.47 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Gonzalo Escobar serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49% 53% | 8% 33% | 44% 76% |
| 2 | 40% 56% | – | 60% 75% |
| 3 | 43% 40% | 9% 100% | 48% 100% |
Set to set +2.32 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.20 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Kevin King
9.0 points left on the table across 256 shots 3.52 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH down the line ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.71 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×11; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.39 pts
Gonzalo Escobar
8.3 points left on the table across 256 shots 3.25 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.90 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.35 pts