Madrid Masters · R64 · Clay · 7 May 2019
Stan Wawrinka v Pierre Hugues Herbert
58–38 in points · Stan Wawrinka won
Why it went the way it did
Stan Wawrinka won 10.7 more points than Pierre Hugues Herbert relative to what the serve alone predicted. Pierre Hugues Herbert's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.3, backhand execution −2.0, serve 2nd execution −1.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Stan Wawrinka | Pierre Hugues Herbert | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +1.1 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +3.2 | +3.8 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.7 | +1.7 | +0.1 | +0.6 | −1.8 | −1.2 |
| Return | +0.7 | −1.0 | +1.8 | +1.5 | +0.1 | −0.3 | +2.2 | +2.0 |
| Forehand | +0.5 | +0.7 | +3.5 | +4.7 | +0.2 | +0.5 | −1.0 | −0.3 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.1 | +1.4 | +1.4 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −2.0 | −2.1 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −1.4 | ±0.0 | −1.5 | ±0.0 | −2.3 | −0.9 | −3.2 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.4 | +0.1 | +0.5 | −1.6 | −1.1 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.5 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.3 |
| All shots | +1.2 | −1.5 | +9.4 | +9.0 | +0.3 | −0.7 | −1.3 | −1.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Stan Wawrinka | Pierre Hugues Herbert | Net, Stan | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +5.3 | −1.6 | +6.9 | |
| 2 | +3.8 | −0.1 | +3.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Stan Wawrinka serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 100% | – | 55% 64% |
| 2 | 64% 88% | – | 36% 67% |
Within sets +3.61 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Pierre Hugues Herbert serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 58% | 4% 100% | 43% 30% |
| 2 | 57% 56% | 7% 50% | 36% 80% |
Within sets +0.28 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Stan Wawrinka
3.0 points left on the table across 122 shots 2.47 per 100 shots
- Return +1: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return +1: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
Pierre Hugues Herbert
3.4 points left on the table across 118 shots 2.88 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your backhand side hit BH drop shot through the middle ×1; BH drop shot crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.20 pts