Rome · R64 · Clay · 13 May 2019
Elisabetta Cocciaretto v Amanda Anisimova
52–68 in points · Amanda Anisimova won
Why it went the way it did
Amanda Anisimova won 6.9 more points than Elisabetta Cocciaretto relative to what the serve alone predicted. Elisabetta Cocciaretto's biggest leaks: forehand execution −2.5, serve 2nd execution −1.4, slice shot selection −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Elisabetta Cocciaretto | Amanda Anisimova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.9 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −1.8 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −1.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −1.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.9 |
| Return | +0.2 | −0.5 | +1.5 | +1.3 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +3.8 | +3.8 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +1.0 | −2.5 | −1.0 | +0.4 | +1.3 | −1.5 | +0.2 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −1.1 | −1.1 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −1.1 | −0.5 | −1.7 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −0.6 | −1.7 |
| Net | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.4 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.4 | −0.5 |
| All shots | −0.7 | −0.8 | −4.8 | −6.3 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +0.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Elisabetta Cocciaretto | Amanda Anisimova | Net, Elisabetta | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.9 | −0.4 | −3.5 | |
| 2 | −2.4 | +0.9 | −3.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Elisabetta Cocciaretto serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12% 67% | 62% 31% | 27% 14% |
| 2 | 4% 0% | 65% 40% | 30% 43% |
Within sets −0.05 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Amanda Anisimova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24% 63% | 38% 46% | 38% 38% |
| 2 | 36% 67% | 36% 50% | 27% 44% |
Set to set +1.93 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.83 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Elisabetta Cocciaretto
4.6 points left on the table across 199 shots 2.31 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH down the line rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
Amanda Anisimova
4.0 points left on the table across 192 shots 2.08 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit BH down the line ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts