Fergana CH · R64 · Hard · 17 Jun 2019
Karim Mohamed Maamoun v Saidalo Saidkarimov
30–42 in points · Saidalo Saidkarimov won
Why it went the way it did
Saidalo Saidkarimov won 7.1 more points than Karim Mohamed Maamoun relative to what the serve alone predicted. Karim Mohamed Maamoun's biggest leaks: return execution −3.4, serve 1st execution −1.5, net execution −1.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Karim Mohamed Maamoun | Saidalo Saidkarimov | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −1.5 | −1.6 | +0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.2 | −3.4 | −3.1 | −0.1 | −0.4 | +0.5 | ±0.0 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +0.3 | +1.2 | +1.5 | −0.2 | +1.0 | +2.8 | +3.6 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | −0.3 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −1.5 | −1.3 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.7 | −0.4 | −1.1 | −0.1 | −1.7 | +0.7 | −1.1 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −1.4 | −1.1 | +0.1 | +0.4 | −0.6 | −0.1 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.6 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| All shots | +0.1 | −0.5 | −4.9 | −5.3 | −0.2 | −0.7 | +2.6 | +1.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Karim Mohamed Maamoun | Saidalo Saidkarimov | Net, Karim | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.2 | +0.3 | −4.6 | |
| 2 | −1.1 | +1.5 | −2.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Karim Mohamed Maamoun serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 73% | 4% 100% | 57% 56% |
| 2 | 33% 50% | 25% 33% | 42% 60% |
Within sets +0.35 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Saidalo Saidkarimov serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% 80% | 8% 100% | 50% 83% |
| 2 | 50% 100% | – | 50% 50% |
Within sets −1.60 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Karim Mohamed Maamoun
2.5 points left on the table across 130 shots 1.91 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.11 pts
Saidalo Saidkarimov
3.5 points left on the table across 128 shots 2.72 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.17 pts