Halle · R32 · Grass · 18 Jun 2019
Rudolf Molleker v Sergiy Stakhovsky
103–113 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Sergiy Stakhovsky won 12.5 more points than Rudolf Molleker relative to what the serve alone predicted. Rudolf Molleker's biggest leaks: return execution −3.7, serve 2nd execution −3.3, serve 1st execution −3.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Rudolf Molleker | Sergiy Stakhovsky | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | −0.5 | −3.2 | −3.9 | +0.3 | +1.1 | +2.8 | +4.2 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | −0.2 | −3.3 | −3.4 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −2.3 | −2.3 |
| Return | −0.1 | +0.2 | −3.7 | −3.6 | +1.1 | −1.6 | −4.0 | −4.6 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | −0.6 | −1.3 | −1.8 | −0.4 | +1.4 | −1.3 | −0.3 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | −1.4 | −2.2 | −3.8 | −0.2 | +0.4 | +1.0 | +1.3 |
| Slice | +0.3 | −2.2 | +0.4 | −1.5 | ±0.0 | −5.0 | −0.3 | −5.2 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.8 | −0.6 | +0.3 | −0.3 | +0.3 | +0.5 | +0.5 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.5 | −0.6 | +0.1 | −0.3 | +1.0 | +0.8 |
| All shots | +0.2 | −4.0 | −14.4 | −18.2 | +0.6 | −3.8 | −2.6 | −5.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Rudolf Molleker | Sergiy Stakhovsky | Net, Rudolf | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.6 | −3.1 | −0.5 | |
| 2 | −8.1 | −2.6 | −5.5 | |
| 3 | −6.5 | −0.1 | −6.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Rudolf Molleker serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51% 63% | 14% 60% | 35% 77% |
| 2 | 54% 67% | 7% 75% | 39% 58% |
| 3 | 35% 64% | 16% 40% | 48% 47% |
Set to set +0.27 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.10 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Sergiy Stakhovsky serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 80% | 10% 100% | 40% 50% |
| 2 | 50% 68% | 2% 100% | 48% 81% |
| 3 | 48% 73% | 9% 50% | 43% 80% |
Set to set −0.30 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.27 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Rudolf Molleker
6.4 points left on the table across 318 shots 2.01 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH down the line rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH down the line rates higher · 0.20 pts
Sergiy Stakhovsky
9.3 points left on the table across 344 shots 2.69 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×10; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.73 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×9; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.63 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts