Palermo · R16 · Clay · 25 Jul 2019
Aleksandra Krunic v Kiki Bertens
44–65 in points · Kiki Bertens won
Why it went the way it did
Kiki Bertens won 10.9 more points than Aleksandra Krunic relative to what the serve alone predicted. Aleksandra Krunic's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.7, return execution −2.5, forehand execution −2.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Aleksandra Krunic | Kiki Bertens | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −0.8 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 |
| Return | +0.3 | −0.3 | −2.5 | −2.5 | +0.5 | +0.7 | +1.9 | +3.1 |
| Forehand | +0.9 | +2.8 | −2.1 | +1.6 | +0.1 | +2.1 | −3.3 | −1.1 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | +0.7 | −2.0 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +1.1 | +1.4 |
| Slice | +0.3 | −3.7 | −1.0 | −4.5 | +0.3 | −3.3 | +2.1 | −0.9 |
| Net | −0.2 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.7 | +0.7 |
| Touch | +0.2 | +0.4 | −0.7 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.6 | +0.3 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +2.0 | −0.3 | −9.6 | −7.9 | +1.3 | −0.7 | +2.3 | +3.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Aleksandra Krunic | Kiki Bertens | Net, Aleksandra | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.8 | +0.8 | −4.7 | |
| 2 | −4.1 | +2.2 | −6.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Aleksandra Krunic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% 41% | 10% 33% | 31% 67% |
| 2 | 43% 42% | 18% 40% | 39% 27% |
Set to set +2.48 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.30 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Kiki Bertens serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56% 67% | 7% 50% | 37% 60% |
| 2 | 54% 62% | 8% 50% | 38% 56% |
Within sets +0.26 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Aleksandra Krunic
4.3 points left on the table across 217 shots 1.99 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Kiki Bertens
5.0 points left on the table across 213 shots 2.34 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: deep return to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drop shot to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.19 pts