Toronto · F · Hard · 11 Aug 2019
Serena Williams v Bianca Andreescu
13–17 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Bianca Andreescu won 2.4 more points than Serena Williams relative to what the serve alone predicted. Serena Williams's biggest leaks: return execution −1.2, backhand execution −1.0, forehand execution −0.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Serena Williams | Bianca Andreescu | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −1.2 | −1.1 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.5 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | −0.1 | −1.0 | −0.9 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.6 | −1.7 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.2 | −0.6 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.7 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.7 | +0.6 |
| All shots | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −4.4 | −4.2 | −0.3 | −0.5 | −1.1 | −1.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Serena Williams | Bianca Andreescu | Net, Serena | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.2 | −1.8 | −2.4 |
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Serena Williams
1.0 points left on the table across 38 shots 2.53 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side, you at net hit Smash inside-out ×1; Smash inside-in rates higher · 0.08 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.07 pts
Bianca Andreescu
1.2 points left on the table across 36 shots 3.27 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.10 pts