Meerbusch CH · R32 · Clay · 14 Aug 2019
Karim Mohamed Maamoun v Pedro Sousa
63–69 in points · Pedro Sousa won
Why it went the way it did
Pedro Sousa won 5.7 more points than Karim Mohamed Maamoun relative to what the serve alone predicted. Karim Mohamed Maamoun's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.5, forehand execution −2.6, net execution −2.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Karim Mohamed Maamoun | Pedro Sousa | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −1.7 | −1.4 | +0.2 | −0.1 | −1.0 | −0.9 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.7 |
| Return | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.7 | +0.9 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +2.2 | +2.2 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +1.9 | −2.6 | −0.3 | +0.3 | +1.4 | −2.0 | −0.3 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.3 | −0.7 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.4 | −0.7 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −3.5 | −0.1 | −3.6 | +0.1 | −0.8 | +0.4 | −0.3 |
| Net | +0.5 | +0.4 | −2.2 | −1.3 | +0.1 | +0.3 | −0.2 | +0.2 |
| Touch | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | +0.1 | −0.4 |
| All shots | +1.3 | −1.1 | −6.7 | −6.5 | +0.6 | +0.2 | −1.7 | −0.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Karim Mohamed Maamoun | Pedro Sousa | Net, Karim | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −5.0 | −0.1 | −4.8 | |
| 2 | −1.6 | −0.7 | −0.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Karim Mohamed Maamoun serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 77% | – | 52% 29% |
| 2 | 44% 56% | – | 56% 52% |
Within sets −0.92 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Pedro Sousa serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 67% | – | 63% 80% |
| 2 | 37% 57% | – | 63% 54% |
Within sets −0.05 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Karim Mohamed Maamoun
5.5 points left on the table across 265 shots 2.08 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
Pedro Sousa
6.0 points left on the table across 258 shots 2.33 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×8; FH inside-in rates higher · 1.30 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts