Winston Salem · R64 · Hard · 19 Aug 2019
Marco Cecchinato v Alexander Bublik
43–39 in points · Marco Cecchinato won
Why it went the way it did
Marco Cecchinato won 2.0 more points than Alexander Bublik relative to what the serve alone predicted. Alexander Bublik's biggest leaks: net execution −2.8, touch execution −1.8, slice shot selection −1.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Marco Cecchinato | Alexander Bublik | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | +0.1 | −1.6 | −1.4 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.8 | +1.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −0.8 | −0.1 | +0.7 | −0.9 | −0.3 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −4.0 | −4.3 | −0.3 | −1.2 | −0.6 | −2.2 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +1.8 | +0.7 | +2.5 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +1.3 | +1.8 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.3 | −0.8 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.9 | +1.2 | +0.3 | +0.2 | −1.4 | +1.0 | −0.3 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +1.1 | +1.3 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −2.8 | −2.9 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −1.8 | −2.0 |
| All shots | +0.2 | +1.5 | −4.5 | −2.7 | −0.4 | −1.3 | −3.0 | −4.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Marco Cecchinato | Alexander Bublik | Net, Marco | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.5 | −2.2 | −0.2 | |
| 2 | −0.3 | −2.5 | +2.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Marco Cecchinato serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 83% | 5% 100% | 51% 67% |
Within sets +0.81 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Alexander Bublik serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 71% | 6% 100% | 47% 82% |
| 2 | 40% 0% | – | 60% 33% |
Within sets −0.61 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Marco Cecchinato
3.2 points left on the table across 106 shots 3.02 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
Alexander Bublik
3.6 points left on the table across 107 shots 3.32 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts