Winston Salem · R32 · Hard · 20 Aug 2019
Denis Shapovalov v Tennys Sandgren
64–48 in points · Denis Shapovalov won
Why it went the way it did
Denis Shapovalov won 10.4 more points than Tennys Sandgren relative to what the serve alone predicted. Tennys Sandgren's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.6, backhand execution −2.6, slice shot selection −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Denis Shapovalov | Tennys Sandgren | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −1.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Return | −0.5 | +0.8 | +0.1 | +0.3 | −0.3 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.3 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +1.3 | −2.0 | −0.8 | −0.7 | +0.5 | −3.6 | −3.9 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | +0.2 | +1.8 | +1.7 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −2.6 | −3.2 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −0.5 | +0.8 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −0.7 | −1.8 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.3 | −1.5 | −1.3 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.7 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.4 | −0.6 |
| All shots | −1.2 | +2.0 | −0.9 | −0.1 | −1.5 | −0.8 | −8.2 | −10.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Denis Shapovalov | Tennys Sandgren | Net, Denis | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.1 | −6.2 | +7.3 | |
| 2 | −1.2 | −4.3 | +3.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Denis Shapovalov serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 82% | – | 50% 73% |
| 2 | 43% 42% | – | 57% 63% |
Within sets +0.87 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Tennys Sandgren serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% 43% | 8% 50% | 33% 50% |
| 2 | 50% 44% | 6% 50% | 44% 50% |
Within sets +1.23 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Denis Shapovalov
6.8 points left on the table across 162 shots 4.18 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH down the line ×5; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.26 pts
Tennys Sandgren
5.3 points left on the table across 148 shots 3.58 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley down the line rates higher · 0.20 pts