Zhuhai · R32 · Hard · 24 Sep 2019
Andy Murray v Tennys Sandgren
114–90 in points · Andy Murray won
Why it went the way it did
Andy Murray won 17.4 more points than Tennys Sandgren relative to what the serve alone predicted. Tennys Sandgren's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −5.7, backhand execution −2.6, forehand execution −1.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Andy Murray | Tennys Sandgren | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | −0.1 | +1.3 | +1.5 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.5 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.3 | +1.3 |
| Return | +0.4 | −0.2 | +2.7 | +2.8 | −0.1 | −0.7 | +0.2 | −0.6 |
| Forehand | +0.8 | +2.7 | +3.3 | +6.7 | +0.5 | +4.1 | −1.9 | +2.7 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.6 | −0.3 | +0.4 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −2.6 | −2.9 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −3.1 | +1.0 | −2.2 | −0.4 | −5.7 | +1.2 | −5.0 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.6 | +1.8 | +2.5 | +0.2 | +1.0 | −1.6 | −0.4 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −1.9 | +1.1 | −0.8 | −0.2 | −0.4 | −1.4 | −1.9 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +1.6 | −1.6 | +11.0 | +11.0 | −0.2 | −1.7 | −4.5 | −6.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Andy Murray | Tennys Sandgren | Net, Andy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.3 | −0.1 | +1.4 | |
| 2 | +2.2 | −0.7 | +2.9 | |
| 3 | +7.5 | −5.7 | +13.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Andy Murray serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 58% | 4% 100% | 54% 80% |
| 2 | 59% 82% | – | 41% 80% |
| 3 | 44% 100% | 6% 100% | 50% 78% |
Set to set +0.83 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.41 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Tennys Sandgren serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% 69% | 4% 100% | 42% 60% |
| 2 | 63% 74% | 5% 50% | 33% 71% |
| 3 | 65% 40% | 7% 25% | 28% 73% |
Set to set +0.85 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.06 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Andy Murray
8.8 points left on the table across 394 shots 2.25 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.26 pts
Tennys Sandgren
10.3 points left on the table across 384 shots 2.69 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.28 pts