Hamburg CH · F · Hard · 27 Oct 2019
Bernabe Zapata Miralles v Botic Van De Zandschulp
75–97 in points · Botic Van De Zandschulp won
Why it went the way it did
Botic Van De Zandschulp won 12.4 more points than Bernabe Zapata Miralles relative to what the serve alone predicted. Bernabe Zapata Miralles's biggest leaks: forehand execution −7.5, slice shot selection −2.6, serve 1st execution −1.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Bernabe Zapata Miralles | Botic Van De Zandschulp | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | −1.6 | −1.5 | −0.2 | −0.1 | +1.3 | +1.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.4 | +1.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.3 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.4 | −0.6 | +0.2 | +0.6 | +6.3 | +7.1 |
| Forehand | +0.5 | +2.7 | −7.5 | −4.3 | +0.1 | +2.0 | +4.7 | +6.8 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | −0.8 | +0.9 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.4 | −2.1 | −1.6 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −2.6 | +0.4 | −2.2 | +0.1 | −5.2 | −0.2 | −5.3 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.9 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.5 |
| Touch | −0.1 | +0.2 | +1.1 | +1.1 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.7 |
| All shots | +0.8 | −0.1 | −5.7 | −4.9 | +0.1 | −2.5 | +9.8 | +7.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Bernabe Zapata Miralles | Botic Van De Zandschulp | Net, Bernabe | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.8 | +8.7 | −9.4 | |
| 2 | −0.2 | −2.9 | +2.7 | |
| 3 | −3.9 | +1.8 | −5.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Bernabe Zapata Miralles serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% 53% | 2% 100% | 57% 50% |
| 2 | 50% 72% | 11% 50% | 39% 64% |
| 3 | 38% 60% | – | 62% 13% |
Set to set +0.38 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.05 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Botic Van De Zandschulp serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 86% | 11% 100% | 50% 89% |
| 2 | 50% 53% | 15% 40% | 35% 75% |
| 3 | 45% 54% | 10% 67% | 45% 85% |
Set to set +0.34 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.34 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Bernabe Zapata Miralles
7.8 points left on the table across 377 shots 2.07 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
Botic Van De Zandschulp
8.9 points left on the table across 384 shots 2.31 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice down the line rates higher · 0.38 pts