Davis Cup Finals · RR · Hard · 20 Nov 2019
Daniel Evans v Robin Haase
111–109 in points · Robin Haase won
Why it went the way it did
Daniel Evans won 2.4 more points than Robin Haase relative to what the serve alone predicted. Robin Haase's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −4.8, net execution −4.2, forehand execution −2.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Daniel Evans | Robin Haase | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | +0.2 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.2 | −0.6 | +0.1 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +1.0 | +1.2 |
| Return | +0.1 | −4.1 | −1.1 | −5.2 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | +3.9 | +3.5 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +4.3 | +0.1 | +4.5 | +0.3 | +4.9 | −2.2 | +3.0 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +1.0 | +2.9 | +3.8 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.6 | −1.8 |
| Slice | +0.7 | −7.1 | +1.3 | −5.0 | +0.4 | −4.8 | −0.6 | −5.0 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.2 | −0.2 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.6 | −4.2 | −3.4 |
| Touch | +0.2 | −1.4 | +1.9 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | +0.1 | −0.8 |
| All shots | +1.6 | −7.0 | +4.5 | −0.9 | +0.9 | ±0.0 | −4.2 | −3.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Daniel Evans | Robin Haase | Net, Daniel | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.3 | −1.2 | +4.6 | |
| 2 | −1.1 | −0.3 | −0.8 | |
| 3 | −3.1 | −1.7 | −1.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Daniel Evans serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 83% | 4% 100% | 48% 75% |
| 2 | 53% 59% | 4% 50% | 43% 59% |
| 3 | 41% 58% | 3% 0% | 55% 75% |
Set to set −0.11 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.06 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Robin Haase serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 53% | – | 48% 71% |
| 2 | 52% 62% | 4% 50% | 45% 60% |
| 3 | 37% 82% | 3% 100% | 60% 61% |
Set to set +0.29 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.30 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Daniel Evans
10.0 points left on the table across 366 shots 2.72 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.25 pts
Robin Haase
10.0 points left on the table across 377 shots 2.66 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts