Australian Open · R64 · Hard · 23 Jan 2020
Iga Swiatek v Carla Suarez Navarro
74–63 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Iga Swiatek won 4.8 more points than Carla Suarez Navarro relative to what the serve alone predicted. Carla Suarez Navarro's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.6, forehand execution −2.5, return shot selection −0.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Iga Swiatek | Carla Suarez Navarro | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +2.3 | +2.1 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +1.3 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.6 | +0.1 | +0.7 | +0.1 | −0.8 | +0.5 | −0.3 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +1.4 | +1.8 | +3.3 | −0.3 | +1.4 | −2.5 | −1.5 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +1.3 | −1.3 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +1.1 | +1.3 | +2.4 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.9 | +0.3 | −1.7 | ±0.0 | −3.6 | +0.8 | −2.8 |
| Net | −0.2 | +0.4 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −0.5 |
| All shots | −0.3 | +1.7 | +2.0 | +3.4 | −0.4 | −2.0 | +1.0 | −1.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Iga Swiatek | Carla Suarez Navarro | Net, Iga | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.8 | +0.4 | +1.4 | |
| 2 | +1.5 | −1.9 | +3.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Iga Swiatek serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26% 67% | 15% 40% | 59% 75% |
| 2 | 32% 75% | 32% 42% | 37% 57% |
Set to set −3.66 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.13 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Carla Suarez Navarro serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32% 83% | 32% 67% | 37% 57% |
| 2 | 30% 62% | 25% 36% | 45% 50% |
Within sets +0.21 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Iga Swiatek
6.3 points left on the table across 253 shots 2.50 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
Carla Suarez Navarro
6.6 points left on the table across 240 shots 2.74 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts