Bangkok CH · F · Hard · 26 Jan 2020
Robin Haase v Federico Gaio
85–96 in points · Federico Gaio won
Why it went the way it did
Federico Gaio won 8.6 more points than Robin Haase relative to what the serve alone predicted. Robin Haase's biggest leaks: forehand execution −7.2, serve 1st execution −4.1, slice shot selection −2.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Robin Haase | Federico Gaio | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −4.1 | −4.1 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.3 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.6 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −3.3 | −3.3 |
| Return | +0.5 | −0.8 | −2.1 | −2.4 | −0.2 | −4.1 | +1.2 | −3.2 |
| Forehand | −0.4 | +3.2 | −7.2 | −4.4 | −0.3 | +1.9 | ±0.0 | +1.6 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | −0.2 | −1.1 | −1.4 | −0.3 | +0.9 | −1.0 | −0.3 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −2.6 | −2.5 | −5.2 | +0.3 | −6.0 | +1.2 | −4.5 |
| Net | −1.0 | +0.5 | −1.3 | −1.8 | −0.2 | +1.0 | +1.0 | +1.8 |
| Touch | +0.3 | −0.2 | +0.8 | +0.9 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −1.7 | −2.9 |
| All shots | −1.0 | ±0.0 | −18.1 | −19.1 | −0.4 | −7.4 | −2.6 | −10.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Robin Haase | Federico Gaio | Net, Robin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −9.6 | −2.5 | −7.1 | |
| 2 | −1.9 | −4.5 | +2.6 | |
| 3 | −7.5 | −3.4 | −4.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Robin Haase serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% 50% | 13% 40% | 34% 46% |
| 2 | 55% 69% | 7% 50% | 38% 82% |
| 3 | 44% 60% | 9% 33% | 47% 56% |
Set to set +0.03 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.53 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Federico Gaio serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 77% | 4% 100% | 48% 54% |
| 2 | 55% 56% | 9% 67% | 36% 75% |
| 3 | 50% 70% | – | 50% 70% |
Set to set −0.39 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.01 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Robin Haase
8.0 points left on the table across 273 shots 2.92 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH slice through the middle + approach ×1; BH slice crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
Federico Gaio
10.1 points left on the table across 280 shots 3.59 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×10; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.75 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drop shot to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.28 pts