Dubai · R32 · Hard · 17 Feb 2020
Kim Clijsters v Garbine Muguruza
67–81 in points · Garbine Muguruza won
Why it went the way it did
Garbine Muguruza won 9.1 more points than Kim Clijsters relative to what the serve alone predicted. Kim Clijsters's biggest leaks: serve 2nd execution −3.5, return execution −2.8, forehand execution −1.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Kim Clijsters | Garbine Muguruza | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.5 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.4 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +2.3 | +2.5 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −3.5 | −3.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 |
| Return | +0.2 | −1.3 | −2.8 | −3.9 | −0.2 | +1.0 | +3.0 | +3.9 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +1.2 | −1.9 | −0.4 | +0.4 | +1.2 | +0.1 | +1.7 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.6 | +1.2 | −0.1 | +0.9 | −7.6 | −6.7 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.6 | +0.1 | −1.4 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | +0.3 | −0.7 |
| Net | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.5 | −0.4 | +0.2 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.3 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 |
| All shots | +0.5 | −1.9 | −6.8 | −8.3 | +0.6 | +2.6 | −2.4 | +0.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Kim Clijsters | Garbine Muguruza | Net, Kim | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −6.0 | −1.2 | −4.9 | |
| 2 | −2.2 | +2.0 | −4.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Kim Clijsters serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34% 50% | 10% 67% | 55% 50% |
| 2 | 24% 54% | 40% 50% | 36% 50% |
Set to set +1.48 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.16 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Garbine Muguruza serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% 79% | 8% 100% | 33% 50% |
| 2 | 46% 67% | 10% 0% | 44% 65% |
Within sets −0.69 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Kim Clijsters
5.0 points left on the table across 220 shots 2.25 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drop shot to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
Garbine Muguruza
5.4 points left on the table across 236 shots 2.30 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×7; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.48 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts