Bergamo CH · R64 · Hard · 18 Feb 2020
Leo Borg v Chun Hsin Tseng
32–54 in points · Chun Hsin Tseng won
Why it went the way it did
Chun Hsin Tseng won 11.6 more points than Leo Borg relative to what the serve alone predicted. Leo Borg's biggest leaks: backhand execution −3.6, serve 1st execution −2.0, forehand execution −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Leo Borg | Chun Hsin Tseng | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | −0.1 | −2.0 | −2.2 | −0.2 | −0.1 | +0.8 | +0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −0.9 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −1.1 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +1.1 | +1.4 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +1.5 | −1.1 | +0.7 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +2.5 | +3.2 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.3 | −3.6 | −3.2 | −0.1 | +0.7 | +1.1 | +1.7 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.6 | −1.1 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −0.4 | −1.5 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.4 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 |
| All shots | +0.5 | +1.4 | −9.2 | −7.3 | −0.4 | +0.6 | +4.2 | +4.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Leo Borg | Chun Hsin Tseng | Net, Leo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.8 | +0.2 | −4.9 | |
| 2 | −2.5 | +4.2 | −6.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Leo Borg serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61% 59% | 7% 50% | 32% 44% |
| 2 | 67% 60% | 20% 33% | 13% 0% |
Within sets −0.04 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Chun Hsin Tseng serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 63% | 23% 80% | 41% 78% |
| 2 | 39% 71% | 11% 100% | 50% 100% |
Within sets +0.53 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Leo Borg
2.6 points left on the table across 146 shots 1.75 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Chun Hsin Tseng
3.5 points left on the table across 144 shots 2.40 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley down the line rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts