Marseille · R16 · Hard · 20 Feb 2020
Pierre Hugues Herbert v Felix Auger Aliassime
94–118 in points · Felix Auger Aliassime won
Why it went the way it did
Felix Auger Aliassime won 15.9 more points than Pierre Hugues Herbert relative to what the serve alone predicted. Pierre Hugues Herbert's biggest leaks: backhand execution −5.7, return execution −5.2, serve 1st execution −5.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Pierre Hugues Herbert | Felix Auger Aliassime | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | +1.2 | −5.1 | −3.7 | +0.2 | −0.2 | +2.8 | +2.9 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.4 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 |
| Return | +0.1 | −0.7 | −5.2 | −5.8 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −3.4 | −3.3 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +5.1 | −3.0 | +2.1 | −0.3 | +3.5 | −0.3 | +2.9 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | +1.3 | −5.7 | −4.0 | +0.1 | +1.9 | +0.3 | +2.3 |
| Slice | +0.4 | −2.1 | −1.0 | −2.7 | +0.1 | −1.3 | −0.2 | −1.5 |
| Net | +1.1 | +0.6 | −0.4 | +1.4 | +0.4 | +0.1 | −1.3 | −0.8 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.6 | +0.3 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.7 | +0.3 | −0.4 |
| Other | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.3 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +2.3 | +4.9 | −20.9 | −13.7 | +0.6 | +3.3 | −1.7 | +2.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Pierre Hugues Herbert | Felix Auger Aliassime | Net, Pierre | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.0 | +3.3 | −7.3 | |
| 2 | −2.2 | −0.1 | −2.2 | |
| 3 | −7.5 | −1.0 | −6.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Pierre Hugues Herbert serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24% 20% | – | 76% 38% |
| 2 | 53% 65% | 6% 67% | 41% 70% |
| 3 | 43% 71% | 8% 50% | 49% 71% |
Set to set +1.00 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.39 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Felix Auger Aliassime serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% 80% | – | 47% 56% |
| 2 | 45% 82% | 5% 100% | 50% 63% |
| 3 | 42% 80% | 6% 100% | 53% 95% |
Set to set −0.99 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.06 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Pierre Hugues Herbert
5.3 points left on the table across 295 shots 1.80 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH down the line rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
Felix Auger Aliassime
7.8 points left on the table across 316 shots 2.47 per 100 shots
- Return +1: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts