Doha · R32 · Hard · 24 Feb 2020
Karolina Muchova v Kiki Bertens
56–66 in points · Kiki Bertens won
Why it went the way it did
Kiki Bertens won 3.7 more points than Karolina Muchova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Karolina Muchova's biggest leaks: forehand execution −6.0, slice shot selection −3.3, return shot selection −1.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Karolina Muchova | Kiki Bertens | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.8 | −0.5 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +1.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +1.3 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 |
| Return | −0.3 | −1.9 | +1.0 | −1.3 | −0.8 | −1.9 | −1.1 | −3.7 |
| Forehand | −0.6 | +2.7 | −6.0 | −3.9 | −0.3 | +1.5 | +0.7 | +2.0 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.8 | −0.4 | +0.3 | −0.3 | +0.2 | −1.3 | −1.5 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −3.3 | ±0.0 | −3.2 | +0.1 | −2.6 | −1.1 | −3.6 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −1.1 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +0.9 |
| Touch | −0.2 | −1.3 | −0.1 | −1.7 | −0.2 | −0.4 | −0.4 | −1.1 |
| Other | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −1.1 | −2.5 | −6.4 | −10.0 | −1.0 | −2.8 | −2.6 | −6.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Karolina Muchova | Kiki Bertens | Net, Karolina | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −5.8 | −0.9 | −4.9 | |
| 2 | −4.2 | −5.4 | +1.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Karolina Muchova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% 50% | 5% 0% | 41% 56% |
| 2 | 47% 57% | 23% 71% | 30% 78% |
Within sets −1.02 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Kiki Bertens serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 67% 81% | 8% 0% | 25% 67% |
| 2 | 67% 58% | 2% 0% | 30% 71% |
Within sets +0.38 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Karolina Muchova
7.9 points left on the table across 230 shots 3.43 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH down the line rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley down the line rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
Kiki Bertens
7.8 points left on the table across 220 shots 3.56 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Return +1: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH lob through the middle ×1; FH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts