Monterrey · R32 · Hard · 3 Mar 2020
Arantxa Rus v Varvara Flink
24–21 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Arantxa Rus won 1.0 more points than Varvara Flink relative to what the serve alone predicted. Varvara Flink's biggest leaks: serve 1st execution −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Arantxa Rus | Varvara Flink | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +1.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −1.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
| Return | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.6 |
| Forehand | −0.6 | +0.7 | −1.0 | −0.9 | −0.1 | +0.3 | −0.2 | +0.1 |
| Backhand | −0.4 | +0.5 | +1.5 | +1.6 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.8 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.5 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 |
| All shots | −1.1 | +1.1 | +1.0 | +1.0 | +0.1 | +0.4 | −0.5 | ±0.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Arantxa Rus | Varvara Flink | Net, Arantxa | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.0 | ±0.0 | +1.0 |
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Arantxa Rus
3.5 points left on the table across 101 shots 3.51 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
Varvara Flink
2.1 points left on the table across 100 shots 2.14 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit BH down the line ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts