Lexington · QF · Hard · 14 Aug 2020
Coco Gauff v Ons Jabeur
95–88 in points · Coco Gauff won
Why it went the way it did
Coco Gauff won 2.2 more points than Ons Jabeur relative to what the serve alone predicted. Ons Jabeur's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −5.3, backhand execution −3.7, touch execution −3.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Coco Gauff | Ons Jabeur | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | −2.3 | −1.9 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −3.2 | −3.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.3 | +1.3 |
| Return | +0.3 | +0.4 | −2.6 | −1.9 | +0.7 | −0.6 | −1.1 | −1.0 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +2.7 | −0.9 | +2.1 | −0.1 | +2.0 | −0.7 | +1.2 |
| Backhand | +0.5 | +1.7 | −2.4 | −0.3 | +0.6 | +0.9 | −3.7 | −2.2 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −2.9 | +0.2 | −2.6 | +0.8 | −5.3 | +2.3 | −2.2 |
| Net | −0.3 | +0.1 | +1.0 | +0.9 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.8 | −0.6 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.8 | +0.3 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −3.0 | −2.9 |
| All shots | +0.9 | +1.2 | −8.1 | −6.0 | +2.6 | −2.8 | −8.1 | −8.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Coco Gauff | Ons Jabeur | Net, Coco | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.2 | +1.8 | −5.0 | |
| 2 | −2.3 | −3.1 | +0.8 | |
| 3 | −0.6 | −7.0 | +6.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Coco Gauff serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56% 58% | 24% 50% | 21% 86% |
| 2 | 56% 48% | 22% 67% | 22% 44% |
| 3 | 64% 75% | 20% 80% | 16% 25% |
Set to set +0.38 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.05 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Ons Jabeur serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% 73% | 7% 100% | 52% 86% |
| 2 | 52% 46% | 16% 25% | 32% 50% |
| 3 | 39% 42% | 6% 0% | 55% 53% |
Set to set +0.28 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.47 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Coco Gauff
7.6 points left on the table across 277 shots 2.74 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.45 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH crosscourt + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit BH crosscourt ×8; BH down the line rates higher · 0.22 pts
Ons Jabeur
7.1 points left on the table across 295 shots 2.40 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH crosscourt ×6; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH drop shot down the line ×2; FH drop shot crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.23 pts