US Open · QF · Hard · 9 Sep 2020
Victoria Azarenka v Elise Mertens
60–35 in points · Victoria Azarenka won
Why it went the way it did
Victoria Azarenka won 12.0 more points than Elise Mertens relative to what the serve alone predicted. Elise Mertens's biggest leaks: backhand execution −1.6, slice shot selection −1.4, serve 1st execution −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Victoria Azarenka | Elise Mertens | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +1.0 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.0 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.3 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.6 | +3.0 | +3.6 | −0.2 | +0.2 | +4.7 | +4.6 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +0.8 | +4.8 | +5.9 | +0.4 | +1.1 | −0.1 | +1.4 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +1.1 | +4.2 | +5.5 | +0.2 | +1.3 | −1.6 | −0.1 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −1.2 | −0.3 | −1.6 | −0.1 | −1.4 | +1.1 | −0.4 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.8 | +0.1 | +1.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.5 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.2 | −0.6 |
| All shots | +0.6 | +2.0 | +12.6 | +15.2 | +0.7 | +1.0 | +1.5 | +3.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Victoria Azarenka | Elise Mertens | Net, Victoria | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4.9 | −0.5 | +5.4 | |
| 2 | +10.3 | +3.7 | +6.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Victoria Azarenka serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% 47% | 14% 100% | 32% 56% |
| 2 | 43% 50% | 17% 50% | 39% 89% |
Within sets +0.17 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Elise Mertens serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 40% | 10% 0% | 40% 25% |
| 2 | 54% 31% | 4% 0% | 42% 50% |
Within sets +1.42 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Victoria Azarenka
4.7 points left on the table across 195 shots 2.43 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your backhand side hit BH down the line ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
Elise Mertens
4.8 points left on the table across 207 shots 2.30 per 100 shots
- Return +1: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH lob through the middle ×1; FH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×3; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts