Australian Open · R128 · Hard · 8 Feb 2021
Egor Gerasimov v Benoit Paire
161–151 in points · Egor Gerasimov won
Why it went the way it did
Egor Gerasimov won 3.8 more points than Benoit Paire relative to what the serve alone predicted. Benoit Paire's biggest leaks: serve 2nd execution −9.8, forehand execution −6.1, serve 1st execution −2.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Egor Gerasimov | Benoit Paire | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −5.6 | −5.7 | +0.5 | +0.7 | −2.4 | −1.1 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −9.8 | −9.6 |
| Return | +0.1 | +1.6 | +0.2 | +1.9 | +0.6 | +1.8 | +2.4 | +4.8 |
| Forehand | −0.4 | +3.5 | +2.4 | +5.4 | −0.3 | +4.4 | −6.1 | −2.0 |
| Backhand | −0.9 | +0.3 | −1.8 | −2.5 | +0.4 | +4.0 | −0.7 | +3.6 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −2.6 | +1.1 | −1.7 | −0.1 | −2.3 | +0.8 | −1.6 |
| Net | −0.5 | −0.6 | +2.1 | +1.0 | +0.8 | +0.9 | +1.2 | +2.9 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.4 | −2.2 | −2.4 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 |
| All shots | −1.8 | +1.8 | −1.7 | −1.7 | +2.3 | +9.0 | −16.7 | −5.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Egor Gerasimov | Benoit Paire | Net, Egor | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.3 | −4.2 | +4.5 | |
| 2 | −1.8 | +4.6 | −6.4 | |
| 3 | −1.6 | −1.6 | +0.1 | |
| 4 | +1.5 | −4.2 | +5.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Egor Gerasimov serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% 67% | 11% 100% | 36% 40% |
| 2 | 68% 54% | 5% 50% | 26% 40% |
| 3 | 52% 67% | 10% 60% | 38% 40% |
| 4 | 57% 54% | 10% 75% | 33% 57% |
Set to set +0.59 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.60 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Benoit Paire serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 89% 25% | – | 11% 100% |
| 2 | 56% 71% | – | 44% 64% |
| 3 | 49% 50% | 4% 50% | 47% 61% |
| 4 | 59% 51% | 2% 100% | 39% 43% |
Set to set +0.96 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.67 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Egor Gerasimov
14.3 points left on the table across 517 shots 2.77 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×13; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH down the line rates higher · 0.44 pts
Benoit Paire
12.7 points left on the table across 567 shots 2.23 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.65 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.37 pts