Phillip Island Trophy · R16 · Hard · 16 Feb 2021
Zarina Diyas v Bianca Andreescu
12–30 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Bianca Andreescu won 9.3 more points than Zarina Diyas relative to what the serve alone predicted. Zarina Diyas's biggest leaks: forehand execution −2.6, backhand execution −2.3, slice execution −0.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Zarina Diyas | Bianca Andreescu | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 |
| Return | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.4 | −0.7 | −0.2 | +0.2 | +1.5 | +1.5 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +0.2 | −2.6 | −2.6 | −0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Backhand | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −2.3 | −2.7 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.7 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.7 | −1.2 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.5 | −1.1 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.2 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.8 | −1.0 | −6.3 | −8.0 | −0.3 | −0.1 | +1.8 | +1.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Zarina Diyas | Bianca Andreescu | Net, Zarina | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −8.0 | +1.3 | −9.3 |
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Zarina Diyas
2.3 points left on the table across 68 shots 3.44 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH lob through the middle ×1; FH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts
Bianca Andreescu
1.8 points left on the table across 66 shots 2.69 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts