Doha · R32 · Hard · 1 Mar 2021
Anett Kontaveit v Jennifer Brady
58–35 in points · Anett Kontaveit won
Why it went the way it did
Anett Kontaveit won 11.7 more points than Jennifer Brady relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jennifer Brady's biggest leaks: return execution −4.2, slice shot selection −1.4, slice execution −0.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Anett Kontaveit | Jennifer Brady | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.9 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 |
| Return | +0.3 | +0.4 | +3.0 | +3.6 | −0.2 | +0.2 | −4.2 | −4.3 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.2 | +0.8 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.1 | +1.0 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.1 | +2.6 | +2.8 | −0.1 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.4 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −1.1 | −0.7 | −2.0 | −0.2 | −1.4 | −0.7 | −2.3 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.2 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.5 | +0.1 | +5.7 | +6.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −5.4 | −5.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Anett Kontaveit | Jennifer Brady | Net, Anett | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4.4 | −2.5 | +7.0 | |
| 2 | +1.8 | −2.9 | +4.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Anett Kontaveit serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 73% | 5% 100% | 43% 78% |
| 2 | 46% 73% | – | 54% 69% |
Within sets −0.18 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jennifer Brady serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 62% 23% | 5% 100% | 33% 71% |
| 2 | 59% 50% | 4% 0% | 37% 60% |
Within sets +1.69 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Anett Kontaveit
3.2 points left on the table across 127 shots 2.52 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice down the line ×2; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
Jennifer Brady
4.0 points left on the table across 134 shots 3.01 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts