Doha · R32 · Hard · 1 Mar 2021
Jelena Ostapenko v Kiki Bertens
59–34 in points · Jelena Ostapenko won
Why it went the way it did
Jelena Ostapenko won 12.9 more points than Kiki Bertens relative to what the serve alone predicted. Kiki Bertens's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.5, touch execution −1.9, backhand execution −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jelena Ostapenko | Kiki Bertens | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.3 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +1.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.8 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.3 | +2.7 | +3.2 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.9 | −1.3 |
| Forehand | +0.7 | +0.8 | +1.3 | +2.8 | −0.3 | +0.5 | −1.0 | −0.7 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.4 | +1.4 | −0.5 | +0.2 | −1.2 | −1.5 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.6 | +0.6 | −0.1 | −3.5 | +1.4 | −2.2 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.7 | +0.7 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.5 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.8 | −0.2 | −0.9 | +0.2 | +0.1 | −1.9 | −1.6 |
| All shots | +0.7 | +0.3 | +5.6 | +6.6 | −0.5 | −3.1 | −2.6 | −6.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Jelena Ostapenko | Kiki Bertens | Net, Jelena | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.9 | −5.0 | +7.9 | |
| 2 | +3.7 | −1.3 | +5.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jelena Ostapenko serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31% 80% | 19% 67% | 50% 75% |
| 2 | 14% 75% | 29% 38% | 57% 63% |
Within sets +0.32 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Kiki Bertens serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 18% | 14% 33% | 33% 57% |
| 2 | 37% 20% | 15% 25% | 48% 54% |
Within sets +2.79 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jelena Ostapenko
2.7 points left on the table across 148 shots 1.81 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return +1: slice to your middle hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH down the line rates higher · 0.13 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
Kiki Bertens
4.7 points left on the table across 136 shots 3.46 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts