Miami Masters · R16 · Hard · 30 Mar 2021
Hubert Hurkacz v Milos Raonic
104–100 in points · Hubert Hurkacz won
Why it went the way it did
Hubert Hurkacz won 2.6 more points than Milos Raonic relative to what the serve alone predicted. Milos Raonic's biggest leaks: return execution −4.8, forehand execution −4.1, backhand execution −2.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Hubert Hurkacz | Milos Raonic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | −0.2 | +1.1 | +1.2 | +0.4 | −0.1 | −1.7 | −1.4 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.9 | −0.8 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 |
| Return | −0.3 | −1.3 | −1.7 | −3.3 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | −4.8 | −4.3 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +1.4 | +0.2 | +1.4 | +0.5 | +4.5 | −4.1 | +0.9 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +1.5 | −1.0 | +0.6 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −2.7 | −2.8 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.9 | +0.5 | −1.2 | +0.3 | −1.2 | +0.1 | −0.8 |
| Net | +0.5 | +0.2 | −0.7 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +1.5 | −0.2 | +1.9 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −1.8 | +0.2 | −1.5 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.3 |
| All shots | +0.5 | −1.9 | −2.2 | −3.6 | +1.7 | +5.5 | −13.5 | −6.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Hubert Hurkacz | Milos Raonic | Net, Hubert | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.7 | −1.9 | −1.8 | |
| 2 | +0.9 | −2.4 | +3.3 | |
| 3 | −0.9 | −1.9 | +1.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Hubert Hurkacz serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 77% | 10% 67% | 47% 57% |
| 2 | 45% 71% | – | 55% 65% |
| 3 | 49% 84% | 3% 100% | 49% 68% |
Set to set +0.23 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.07 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Milos Raonic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 71% 68% | – | 29% 80% |
| 2 | 70% 57% | 3% 0% | 27% 63% |
| 3 | 79% 74% | – | 21% 75% |
Set to set +0.68 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.47 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Hubert Hurkacz
6.3 points left on the table across 235 shots 2.66 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
Milos Raonic
5.1 points left on the table across 237 shots 2.16 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts