Istanbul · R32 · Clay · 19 Apr 2021
Sara Errani v Ana Konjuh
69–82 in points · Ana Konjuh won
Why it went the way it did
Ana Konjuh won 6.2 more points than Sara Errani relative to what the serve alone predicted. Sara Errani's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −4.1, slice execution −1.3, serve 1st direction choices −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Sara Errani | Ana Konjuh | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −1.3 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | −0.8 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −1.4 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.6 | +1.2 | +0.5 | +0.5 | +1.0 | +1.8 | +3.3 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +1.5 | −0.3 | +1.2 | +0.4 | +1.6 | ±0.0 | +2.0 |
| Backhand | −0.7 | +0.3 | −0.2 | −0.7 | +0.6 | +0.5 | −2.9 | −1.8 |
| Slice | −0.3 | −4.1 | −1.3 | −5.7 | +0.1 | −1.0 | −0.1 | −0.9 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.9 | −0.7 | +0.4 | +0.4 | −0.9 | −0.2 |
| Touch | −0.2 | −0.5 | +1.2 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 | −0.9 |
| All shots | −2.5 | −3.4 | −0.3 | −6.2 | +2.0 | +2.0 | −4.0 | ±0.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Sara Errani | Ana Konjuh | Net, Sara | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.6 | −0.3 | −1.3 | |
| 2 | −4.6 | +0.3 | −4.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Sara Errani serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31% 57% | 53% 50% | 16% 14% |
| 2 | 33% 31% | 63% 60% | 5% 100% |
Set to set +1.23 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.95 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Ana Konjuh serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 33% | 28% 73% | 33% 46% |
| 2 | 42% 50% | 21% 80% | 38% 89% |
Set to set +1.30 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +2.09 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Sara Errani
7.0 points left on the table across 239 shots 2.94 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH down the line rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
Ana Konjuh
4.4 points left on the table across 271 shots 1.64 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.15 pts