Madrid · R32 · Clay · 2 May 2021
Jennifer Brady v Jelena Ostapenko
59–39 in points · Jennifer Brady won
Why it went the way it did
Jennifer Brady won 9.7 more points than Jelena Ostapenko relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jelena Ostapenko's biggest leaks: return execution −6.3, serve 1st execution −1.9, forehand execution −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jennifer Brady | Jelena Ostapenko | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −1.9 | −1.6 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| Return | −0.3 | −0.2 | +1.2 | +0.7 | +0.2 | −0.6 | −6.3 | −6.8 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +0.8 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.5 | −1.7 | −1.0 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.1 | +1.5 | +1.5 | +0.3 | −0.2 | +1.0 | +1.1 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −2.1 | +1.2 | −1.1 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.5 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.7 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 |
| All shots | −0.5 | −1.3 | +3.1 | +1.3 | +0.9 | −0.7 | −8.5 | −8.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Jennifer Brady | Jelena Ostapenko | Net, Jennifer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.0 | −3.9 | +4.9 | |
| 2 | +0.3 | −4.5 | +4.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jennifer Brady serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 64% | 8% 100% | 48% 75% |
| 2 | 30% 50% | 7% 50% | 63% 76% |
Within sets +0.41 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jelena Ostapenko serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 67% | 13% 50% | 50% 44% |
| 2 | 50% 43% | – | 50% 43% |
Set to set +2.14 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.71 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jennifer Brady
3.8 points left on the table across 132 shots 2.90 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH down the line rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×3; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
Jelena Ostapenko
2.7 points left on the table across 146 shots 1.87 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH lob through the middle ×2; FH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts