Little Rock CH · Q1 · Hard · 30 May 2021
Brian Battistone v Stefan Kozlov
43–72 in points · Stefan Kozlov won
Why it went the way it did
Stefan Kozlov won 19.7 more points than Brian Battistone relative to what the serve alone predicted. Brian Battistone's biggest leaks: serve 1st execution −3.8, return execution −2.7, net execution −2.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Brian Battistone | Stefan Kozlov | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.4 | +2.7 | −3.8 | −1.6 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +2.1 | +2.1 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.2 | +1.0 | −2.3 | −1.5 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +1.1 |
| Return | −0.2 | +0.3 | −2.7 | −2.6 | +0.1 | +0.7 | −1.0 | −0.3 |
| Forehand | −0.3 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.6 | +1.0 | +1.7 | +3.3 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.6 | −0.4 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.8 | +2.2 | +3.1 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −0.9 | −0.2 | −1.1 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.7 | −1.2 |
| Net | +0.5 | −0.4 | −2.6 | −2.5 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +0.9 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | +2.4 | +2.0 |
| All shots | −0.5 | +3.5 | −11.8 | −8.8 | +0.9 | +1.3 | +8.6 | +10.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Brian Battistone | Stefan Kozlov | Net, Brian | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −5.1 | +7.2 | −12.3 | |
| 2 | −3.7 | +3.6 | −7.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Brian Battistone serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% 41% | 22% 75% | 24% 46% |
| 2 | 52% 55% | 19% 50% | 29% 17% |
Set to set −0.30 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.40 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Stefan Kozlov serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 100% | 11% 100% | 50% 78% |
| 2 | 59% 77% | 5% 0% | 36% 88% |
Within sets ±0.00 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Brian Battistone
4.3 points left on the table across 110 shots 3.94 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: short return to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
Stefan Kozlov
4.1 points left on the table across 130 shots 3.14 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts
- Return +1: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH down the line ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.18 pts