Roland Garros · R128 · Clay · 31 May 2021
Pierre Hugues Herbert v Jannik Sinner
142–163 in points · Jannik Sinner won
Why it went the way it did
Jannik Sinner won 10.1 more points than Pierre Hugues Herbert relative to what the serve alone predicted. Pierre Hugues Herbert's biggest leaks: return execution −8.3, forehand execution −5.9, serve 1st execution −4.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Pierre Hugues Herbert | Jannik Sinner | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | +3.2 | −4.4 | −1.2 | −0.5 | −0.4 | −2.4 | −3.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | +1.0 | −3.9 | −2.9 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.9 | −8.3 | −7.2 | −0.7 | +1.6 | −6.3 | −5.4 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +3.5 | −5.9 | −2.5 | −0.9 | +3.0 | −3.8 | −1.7 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.1 | −1.0 | −1.1 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +1.0 | +1.8 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −3.5 | +0.7 | −2.6 | +0.1 | −2.0 | +0.9 | −1.0 |
| Net | +0.8 | +0.3 | −2.2 | −1.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −1.0 | −1.1 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.1 | −1.2 | −1.3 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | +1.2 | +0.8 |
| All shots | +0.9 | +5.4 | −26.3 | −19.9 | −2.2 | +2.7 | −10.3 | −9.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Pierre Hugues Herbert | Jannik Sinner | Net, Pierre | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −5.8 | +3.2 | −9.0 | |
| 2 | −1.6 | −6.5 | +5.0 | |
| 3 | −0.8 | −2.3 | +1.5 | |
| 4 | −5.0 | −0.8 | −4.1 | |
| 5 | −6.7 | −3.3 | −3.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Pierre Hugues Herbert serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 27% | 9% 0% | 41% 56% |
| 2 | 50% 69% | 12% 67% | 38% 60% |
| 3 | 56% 75% | 3% 0% | 42% 40% |
| 4 | 55% 57% | 11% 25% | 34% 77% |
| 5 | 66% 63% | 10% 67% | 24% 71% |
Set to set −0.10 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.34 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jannik Sinner serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57% 88% | – | 43% 83% |
| 2 | 47% 38% | 21% 43% | 32% 73% |
| 3 | 28% 45% | 28% 64% | 45% 56% |
| 4 | 46% 74% | 12% 80% | 41% 65% |
| 5 | 40% 80% | 24% 100% | 36% 67% |
Set to set +0.92 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.49 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Pierre Hugues Herbert
12.1 points left on the table across 443 shots 2.74 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×6; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.39 pts
Jannik Sinner
14.7 points left on the table across 419 shots 3.51 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH down the line rates higher · 0.71 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.55 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts