Eastbourne · R32 · Grass · 22 Jun 2021
Shelby Rogers v Kiki Bertens
69–53 in points · Shelby Rogers won
Why it went the way it did
Shelby Rogers won 6.9 more points than Kiki Bertens relative to what the serve alone predicted. Kiki Bertens's biggest leaks: backhand execution −2.8, forehand execution −2.7, slice shot selection −1.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Shelby Rogers | Kiki Bertens | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.2 | −1.2 | −0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.8 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.7 |
| Return | +0.4 | −0.3 | −0.9 | −0.8 | +0.2 | −0.9 | −0.5 | −1.3 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +1.3 | +1.3 | +2.7 | +0.2 | +2.3 | −2.7 | −0.2 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.2 | −1.6 | −1.5 | −0.7 | +0.9 | −2.8 | −2.5 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.3 | +0.7 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −1.8 | +0.2 | −1.6 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.7 | +0.8 | −0.1 | +0.8 | +0.7 | +1.5 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −1.3 | +0.4 | −0.9 | +0.2 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −0.7 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| All shots | +0.6 | −1.3 | +1.4 | +0.7 | −0.1 | +1.3 | −7.5 | −6.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Shelby Rogers | Kiki Bertens | Net, Shelby | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.3 | −2.8 | +5.1 | |
| 2 | −1.6 | −3.5 | +1.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Shelby Rogers serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 73% | 18% 60% | 43% 58% |
| 2 | 50% 61% | 14% 60% | 36% 46% |
Within sets +0.18 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Kiki Bertens serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56% 30% | 6% 100% | 39% 43% |
| 2 | 57% 52% | 8% 67% | 35% 46% |
Within sets +0.35 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Shelby Rogers
4.3 points left on the table across 164 shots 2.62 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH lob through the middle ×2; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
Kiki Bertens
5.2 points left on the table across 182 shots 2.87 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts