Lausanne · R32 · Clay · 13 Jul 2021
Tess Sugnaux v Lucia Bronzetti
32–63 in points · Lucia Bronzetti won
Why it went the way it did
Lucia Bronzetti won 18.1 more points than Tess Sugnaux relative to what the serve alone predicted. Tess Sugnaux's biggest leaks: forehand execution −2.9, slice shot selection −2.5, touch shot selection −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Tess Sugnaux | Lucia Bronzetti | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.4 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +1.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.4 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.4 | −1.3 | −1.8 | +0.1 | −0.4 | +2.6 | +2.4 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +2.0 | −2.9 | −1.0 | +0.3 | +2.9 | +1.8 | +5.1 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.8 | +1.1 | +0.2 | −0.2 | +3.4 | +3.5 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −2.5 | +0.6 | −2.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.5 | −0.9 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.2 | −1.5 | −1.4 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +1.2 | +1.3 |
| Touch | +0.2 | −1.5 | +0.2 | −1.1 | +0.2 | −1.7 | −0.3 | −1.8 |
| All shots | +0.2 | −2.0 | −5.2 | −7.0 | +1.1 | +0.3 | +9.7 | +11.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Tess Sugnaux | Lucia Bronzetti | Net, Tess | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.8 | +5.0 | −8.8 | |
| 2 | −3.2 | +6.1 | −9.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Tess Sugnaux serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% 44% | 13% 33% | 33% 40% |
| 2 | 55% 27% | – | 45% 33% |
Set to set +0.53 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.85 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Lucia Bronzetti serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 86% | 7% 100% | 43% 50% |
| 2 | 50% 71% | – | 50% 100% |
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Tess Sugnaux
7.0 points left on the table across 254 shots 2.77 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.60 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
Lucia Bronzetti
6.3 points left on the table across 266 shots 2.35 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH down the line rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side hit FH inside-out ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.25 pts