Olympics · R64 · Hard · 24 Jul 2021
Marketa Vondrousova v Kiki Bertens
85–94 in points · Marketa Vondrousova won
Why it went the way it did
Kiki Bertens won 4.5 more points than Marketa Vondrousova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Marketa Vondrousova's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −5.3, return shot selection −2.4, serve 1st execution −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Marketa Vondrousova | Kiki Bertens | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −1.5 | −2.3 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.9 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 |
| Return | −0.1 | −2.4 | −0.7 | −3.2 | −0.2 | −0.9 | −0.4 | −1.5 |
| Forehand | +0.5 | +1.7 | +0.9 | +3.1 | +0.7 | +2.0 | −2.3 | +0.4 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.5 | −0.7 | −0.3 | −0.2 | +1.0 | +1.6 | +2.3 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −5.3 | +0.3 | −5.0 | −0.4 | −2.6 | −0.9 | −3.8 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +0.5 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −1.5 | −1.1 |
| Touch | −0.3 | −1.5 | ±0.0 | −1.7 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −1.8 | −2.0 |
| All shots | −0.9 | −6.9 | −2.1 | −10.0 | +0.4 | −0.5 | −5.3 | −5.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Marketa Vondrousova | Kiki Bertens | Net, Marketa | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.6 | −3.8 | +2.2 | |
| 2 | −6.5 | +0.8 | −7.3 | |
| 3 | −1.9 | −2.4 | +0.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Marketa Vondrousova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 50% | 28% 56% | 34% 64% |
| 2 | 28% 63% | 45% 62% | 28% 25% |
| 3 | 35% 64% | 35% 57% | 30% 67% |
Set to set −0.20 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.22 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Kiki Bertens serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 43% | – | 50% 43% |
| 2 | 39% 86% | 11% 100% | 50% 89% |
| 3 | 47% 50% | 9% 100% | 44% 67% |
Set to set −0.08 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.42 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Marketa Vondrousova
9.5 points left on the table across 308 shots 3.10 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH slice through the middle ×9; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit BH crosscourt ×3; BH inside-out rates higher · 0.38 pts
Kiki Bertens
8.1 points left on the table across 324 shots 2.51 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×6; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.32 pts