Tokyo Olympics · R64 · Hard · 25 Jul 2021
Alize Cornet v Karolina Pliskova
32–56 in points · Karolina Pliskova won
Why it went the way it did
Karolina Pliskova won 12.5 more points than Alize Cornet relative to what the serve alone predicted. Alize Cornet's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.4, serve 1st execution −1.3, return execution −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Alize Cornet | Karolina Pliskova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −1.6 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.6 | −1.3 | −2.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +2.6 | +2.9 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.2 | +0.5 | −2.1 | −1.5 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.6 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +1.9 | +2.2 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −2.4 | −0.9 | −3.3 | +0.1 | −0.9 | +0.3 | −0.5 |
| Net | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.6 | +1.6 | +2.5 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.5 | −2.0 | −3.9 | −6.4 | +0.8 | +0.9 | +4.5 | +6.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Alize Cornet | Karolina Pliskova | Net, Alize | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.1 | +4.7 | −7.7 | |
| 2 | −3.3 | +1.5 | −4.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Alize Cornet serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 33% | 42% 20% | 21% 40% |
| 2 | 45% 56% | 25% 60% | 30% 67% |
Within sets −1.13 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Karolina Pliskova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 43% | 14% 100% | 36% 80% |
| 2 | 41% 67% | 7% 100% | 52% 80% |
Within sets −0.66 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Alize Cornet
3.9 points left on the table across 148 shots 2.66 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
Karolina Pliskova
3.2 points left on the table across 148 shots 2.14 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return +1: slice to your backhand side hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts