ITF San Bartolome de Tirajana · F · Clay · 22 Aug 2021
Arantxa Rus v Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva
57–26 in points · Arantxa Rus won
Why it went the way it did
Arantxa Rus won 13.9 more points than Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva relative to what the serve alone predicted. Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.6, return execution −3.0, backhand execution −2.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Arantxa Rus | Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| Return | −0.4 | +0.4 | +1.2 | +1.2 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −3.0 | −2.9 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +1.0 | +1.7 | +2.5 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | −4.6 | −3.7 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +2.4 | +2.3 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −2.3 | −2.0 |
| Slice | −0.3 | −2.2 | ±0.0 | −2.5 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −1.1 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.5 | −0.2 | −0.1 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | +0.5 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.7 | +0.4 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.8 | +0.3 | −0.4 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| All shots | −1.3 | −1.3 | +6.7 | +4.1 | +0.3 | +0.3 | −10.4 | −9.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Arantxa Rus | Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva | Net, Arantxa | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.3 | −6.1 | +7.4 | |
| 2 | +2.8 | −3.6 | +6.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Arantxa Rus serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32% 50% | 42% 75% | 26% 80% |
| 2 | 33% 80% | 33% 60% | 33% 60% |
Within sets +0.25 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 17% | 28% 20% | 39% 43% |
| 2 | 25% 67% | 17% 0% | 58% 29% |
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Arantxa Rus
6.5 points left on the table across 173 shots 3.75 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.68 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.65 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva
4.6 points left on the table across 201 shots 2.30 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH down the line rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH down the line rates higher · 0.22 pts