US Open · R128 · Hard · 30 Aug 2021
Leylah Fernandez v Ana Konjuh
78–69 in points · Leylah Fernandez won
Why it went the way it did
Leylah Fernandez won 4.7 more points than Ana Konjuh relative to what the serve alone predicted. Ana Konjuh's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.1, serve 2nd execution −2.1, backhand execution −2.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Leylah Fernandez | Ana Konjuh | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +1.2 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +1.3 | +1.5 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −2.1 | −2.0 |
| Return | −0.5 | −0.4 | −1.2 | −2.2 | −0.3 | −1.1 | −1.7 | −3.1 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +1.0 | −0.3 | +0.6 | −0.1 | +0.7 | −4.1 | −3.5 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −1.8 | −2.0 | +0.1 | +0.5 | −2.1 | −1.6 |
| Slice | −0.4 | −2.0 | −1.2 | −3.6 | +0.2 | −2.1 | +0.2 | −1.7 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −1.8 | −1.6 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.4 | +1.0 | +0.5 |
| All shots | −0.7 | −1.5 | −4.6 | −6.8 | +0.2 | −2.3 | −9.3 | −11.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Leylah Fernandez | Ana Konjuh | Net, Leylah | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.9 | −4.3 | +0.4 | |
| 2 | −2.9 | −7.2 | +4.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Leylah Fernandez serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 69% 71% | 6% 100% | 25% 23% |
| 2 | 43% 67% | 24% 40% | 33% 71% |
Set to set −2.34 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.46 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Ana Konjuh serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30% 40% | 12% 67% | 58% 69% |
| 2 | 28% 57% | 8% 0% | 64% 44% |
Set to set −0.54 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.37 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Leylah Fernandez
7.1 points left on the table across 200 shots 3.56 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH inside-out rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit BH crosscourt ×3; BH inside-out rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit BH down the line ×2; BH inside-out rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.34 pts
Ana Konjuh
5.3 points left on the table across 210 shots 2.53 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts