RallyIQ

US Open · QF · Hard · 7 Sep 2021

Botic Van De Zandschulp v Daniil Medvedev

92–121 in points · Daniil Medvedev won

Why it went the way it did

Daniil Medvedev won 16.7 more points than Botic Van De Zandschulp relative to what the serve alone predicted. Botic Van De Zandschulp's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −6.5, return execution −3.7, serve 1st execution −3.3.

Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.

ShotBotic Van De ZandschulpDaniil Medvedev
DirSelExecTotalDirSelExecTotal
Serve 1st +0.3 ±0.0 −3.3 −3.0 +0.4 −0.2 +0.1 +0.3
Serve 2nd ±0.0 −0.1 −0.6 −0.7 ±0.0 ±0.0 +1.3 +1.3
Return +0.1 −1.9 −3.7 −5.5 +0.3 +0.6 +0.3 +1.2
Forehand +0.2 +4.7 −1.9 +2.9 −0.5 +2.8 +0.1 +2.5
Backhand −0.7 +0.5 −0.3 −0.5 −0.1 +1.3 +1.9 +3.1
Slice ±0.0 −6.5 +1.4 −5.1 −0.1 −2.6 +0.4 −2.4
Net −0.8 −0.2 +0.7 −0.3 ±0.0 +0.4 +0.1 +0.5
Touch +0.3 −0.2 +0.3 +0.4 +0.2 −0.9 −0.4 −1.0
Other ±0.0 ±0.0 ±0.0 ±0.0 −0.1 −0.4 −0.3 −0.8
All shots −0.6−3.7 −7.6−11.9 +0.2+1.0 +3.6+4.8

Set by set

SetBotic Van De ZandschulpDaniil MedvedevNet, Botic
1−2.6+1.9 −4.4
2−5.5+1.8 −7.3
3+1.1−1.1 +2.2
4−5.0+2.2 −7.2

Adaptation

First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.

Botic Van De Zandschulp serving

SetWideBodyT
1 46% 44% – 54% 58%
2 39% 29% 6% 100% 56% 30%
3 31% 75% 8% 50% 62% 81%
4 37% 54% 6% 50% 57% 70%

Set to set +0.37 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets +0.23 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Daniil Medvedev serving

SetWideBodyT
1 36% 75% 5% 0% 59% 62%
2 56% 67% – 44% 86%
3 50% 76% – 50% 59%
4 52% 79% – 48% 100%

Set to set −0.03 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets +0.32 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Counterfactual: the best direction every time

If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.

Botic Van De Zandschulp

13.4 points left on the table across 494 shots 2.72 per 100 shots

  1. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×3; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.78 pts
  2. Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×11; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.77 pts
  3. Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×12; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.66 pts
  4. Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×15; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.63 pts

Daniil Medvedev

10.8 points left on the table across 485 shots 2.23 per 100 shots

  1. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
  2. Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
  3. Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
  4. Long rally, 9+: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit BH slice through the middle ×1; BH slice down the line rates higher · 0.29 pts