ITF Johannesburg · F · Hard · 19 Sep 2021
Richel Hogenkamp v Valeria Bhunu
106–100 in points · Richel Hogenkamp won
Why it went the way it did
Richel Hogenkamp won 4.6 more points than Valeria Bhunu relative to what the serve alone predicted. Valeria Bhunu's biggest leaks: forehand execution −9.1, slice shot selection −5.5, slice execution −3.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Richel Hogenkamp | Valeria Bhunu | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.8 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +0.3 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −2.3 | −2.3 |
| Return | −0.1 | −4.1 | +1.7 | −2.6 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | +3.0 | +2.4 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +3.1 | −3.2 | −0.1 | −0.7 | +1.9 | −9.1 | −7.9 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | +0.6 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −2.7 | +0.7 | −2.7 | −4.7 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −15.6 | +0.8 | −14.6 | −0.1 | −5.5 | −3.3 | −8.9 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −0.7 | −0.2 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 |
| Touch | −0.5 | −1.0 | −0.3 | −1.8 | −0.2 | −1.5 | −1.1 | −2.8 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −0.7 |
| All shots | −0.8 | −16.6 | −2.6 | −20.0 | −4.6 | −5.2 | −14.8 | −24.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Richel Hogenkamp | Valeria Bhunu | Net, Richel | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −6.6 | −8.3 | +1.7 | |
| 2 | −6.7 | −4.5 | −2.3 | |
| 3 | −6.6 | −11.8 | +5.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Richel Hogenkamp serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 68% 50% | 24% 67% | 8% 33% |
| 2 | 45% 69% | 24% 57% | 31% 33% |
| 3 | 60% 60% | 16% 50% | 24% 67% |
Set to set −0.65 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.90 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Valeria Bhunu serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% 30% | 29% 60% | 41% 50% |
| 2 | 31% 58% | 26% 60% | 44% 65% |
| 3 | 20% 50% | 46% 53% | 34% 36% |
Set to set −0.03 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.21 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Richel Hogenkamp
14.2 points left on the table across 450 shots 3.15 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×16; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.96 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×10; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.64 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH slice through the middle ×12; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
Valeria Bhunu
15.2 points left on the table across 454 shots 3.35 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×16; BH down the line rates higher · 1.73 pts
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your middle hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.62 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH down the line rates higher · 0.50 pts