BJK Cup Finals · RR · Hard · 1 Nov 2021
Carla Suarez Navarro v Viktoria Hruncakova
71–87 in points · Viktoria Hruncakova won
Why it went the way it did
Viktoria Hruncakova won 8.4 more points than Carla Suarez Navarro relative to what the serve alone predicted. Carla Suarez Navarro's biggest leaks: return execution −3.6, slice shot selection −3.1, return shot selection −1.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Carla Suarez Navarro | Viktoria Hruncakova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.9 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | −0.4 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +1.3 | +1.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.6 | +1.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 |
| Return | −0.2 | −1.4 | −3.6 | −5.2 | +0.3 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.1 |
| Forehand | −0.4 | +1.0 | +0.2 | +0.8 | +0.5 | +0.7 | +4.7 | +5.9 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.3 | +1.0 | +1.4 | +0.2 | +0.9 | −3.1 | −1.9 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −3.1 | −0.6 | −3.7 | +0.1 | −1.6 | −0.1 | −1.6 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.4 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −1.3 | −3.2 | −0.6 | −5.1 | +1.5 | −0.5 | +2.4 | +3.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Carla Suarez Navarro | Viktoria Hruncakova | Net, Carla | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.5 | +2.7 | −6.1 | |
| 2 | +0.3 | −2.6 | +2.8 | |
| 3 | −1.9 | +3.2 | −5.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Carla Suarez Navarro serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31% 50% | 31% 50% | 38% 50% |
| 2 | 23% 86% | 43% 62% | 33% 80% |
| 3 | 27% 43% | 54% 43% | 19% 80% |
Set to set +0.54 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.05 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Viktoria Hruncakova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 91% | 8% 50% | 46% 64% |
| 2 | 33% 71% | 14% 100% | 52% 55% |
| 3 | 48% 53% | 3% 0% | 48% 87% |
Set to set +0.14 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.04 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Carla Suarez Navarro
6.9 points left on the table across 242 shots 2.85 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
Viktoria Hruncakova
4.9 points left on the table across 257 shots 1.92 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts