Australian Open · Q1 · Hard · 11 Jan 2022
Urszula Radwanska v Indy De Vroome
114–107 in points · Indy De Vroome won
Why it went the way it did
Urszula Radwanska won 3.9 more points than Indy De Vroome relative to what the serve alone predicted. Indy De Vroome's biggest leaks: return execution −6.2, forehand execution −5.1, serve 2nd execution −5.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Urszula Radwanska | Indy De Vroome | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.7 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −2.2 | −1.1 | ±0.0 | −2.4 | −3.5 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −5.0 | −5.0 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −2.1 | −2.4 | +0.5 | +0.9 | −6.2 | −4.7 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +2.4 | −1.4 | +1.1 | +0.4 | +2.8 | −5.1 | −2.0 |
| Backhand | −0.6 | +0.4 | −3.1 | −3.3 | +0.2 | +0.6 | −0.1 | +0.7 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −4.0 | +1.4 | −2.6 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | +1.3 | +0.8 |
| Net | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.9 | −0.4 | +0.5 | −1.5 | −1.4 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −1.4 | −2.8 | −0.3 | −0.3 | +0.9 | +0.3 |
| All shots | −1.1 | −2.9 | −7.0 | −11.0 | −0.6 | +3.8 | −18.1 | −14.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Urszula Radwanska | Indy De Vroome | Net, Urszula | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −8.4 | −6.6 | −1.8 | |
| 2 | +1.7 | −4.9 | +6.7 | |
| 3 | −4.4 | −3.4 | −1.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Urszula Radwanska serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31% 42% | 28% 55% | 41% 56% |
| 2 | 33% 88% | 29% 57% | 38% 67% |
| 3 | 42% 55% | 42% 50% | 17% 25% |
Set to set −0.10 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.16 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Indy De Vroome serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23% 55% | 42% 65% | 35% 47% |
| 2 | 30% 33% | 35% 57% | 35% 29% |
| 3 | 15% 17% | 46% 53% | 39% 56% |
Set to set +0.89 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.64 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Urszula Radwanska
8.8 points left on the table across 329 shots 2.66 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.60 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
Indy De Vroome
8.8 points left on the table across 371 shots 2.37 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.60 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×13; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts