Australian Open · R128 · Hard · 17 Jan 2022
John Millman v Feliciano Lopez
137–116 in points · John Millman won
Why it went the way it did
John Millman won 12.1 more points than Feliciano Lopez relative to what the serve alone predicted. Feliciano Lopez's biggest leaks: net execution −7.0, slice shot selection −5.4, forehand execution −4.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | John Millman | Feliciano Lopez | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.2 | −2.8 | −2.9 | +0.1 | +3.3 | −1.5 | +1.9 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +1.8 | +1.8 | −0.2 | +0.7 | −0.1 | +0.3 |
| Return | −1.0 | +1.0 | −1.4 | −1.4 | +0.3 | −3.2 | −1.5 | −4.4 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +1.6 | −0.9 | +0.8 | −0.3 | +3.3 | −4.8 | −1.8 |
| Backhand | +0.7 | −1.0 | −0.6 | −1.0 | −0.3 | +0.4 | −0.9 | −0.8 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.8 | +0.1 | −0.8 | −0.6 | −5.4 | +1.8 | −4.2 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.3 | −0.2 | +0.3 | +0.5 | −1.0 | −7.0 | −7.5 |
| Touch | −0.2 | −1.1 | −0.7 | −2.0 | +0.1 | −0.3 | −0.7 | −0.8 |
| All shots | −0.2 | −0.4 | −4.7 | −5.2 | −0.4 | −2.2 | −14.8 | −17.4 |
Set by set
| Set | John Millman | Feliciano Lopez | Net, John | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.1 | −8.4 | +7.3 | |
| 2 | −0.1 | −6.6 | +6.5 | |
| 3 | −7.2 | −2.1 | −5.2 | |
| 4 | +3.2 | −0.3 | +3.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
John Millman serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 80% | 5% 100% | 50% 73% |
| 2 | 58% 60% | 4% 100% | 38% 80% |
| 3 | 27% 67% | 9% 33% | 64% 52% |
| 4 | 45% 67% | 8% 67% | 48% 68% |
Set to set +0.84 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.08 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Feliciano Lopez serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 45% | 4% 100% | 50% 42% |
| 2 | 44% 38% | 8% 33% | 47% 65% |
| 3 | 28% 86% | 8% 50% | 64% 69% |
| 4 | 26% 67% | 11% 40% | 64% 60% |
Set to set +2.79 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +2.75 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
John Millman
11.1 points left on the table across 416 shots 2.67 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH down the line ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.55 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
Feliciano Lopez
17.4 points left on the table across 432 shots 4.03 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×13; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 1.27 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH slice crosscourt ×11; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.74 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×3; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.60 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×4; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.55 pts