Australian Open · R128 · Hard · 17 Jan 2022
Tallon Griekspoor v Fabio Fognini
96–67 in points · Tallon Griekspoor won
Why it went the way it did
Tallon Griekspoor won 15.2 more points than Fabio Fognini relative to what the serve alone predicted. Fabio Fognini's biggest leaks: forehand execution −5.2, serve 1st execution −4.4, return execution −4.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Tallon Griekspoor | Fabio Fognini | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.3 | −0.4 | −0.2 | −4.4 | −5.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.4 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.3 | −4.0 | −3.5 | −0.2 | −0.9 | −4.0 | −5.1 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +2.5 | +0.8 | +3.5 | +0.5 | +2.0 | −5.2 | −2.8 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −1.8 | −2.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −2.2 | −2.4 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −2.5 | −0.8 | −3.1 | +0.1 | −2.4 | −0.1 | −2.3 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.5 | +0.8 | +1.4 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.9 | −0.7 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.4 | −1.2 | +0.1 | −0.4 | +0.2 | −0.1 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.4 |
| All shots | +0.7 | −0.2 | −4.5 | −4.0 | ±0.0 | −1.9 | −17.3 | −19.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Tallon Griekspoor | Fabio Fognini | Net, Tallon | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.4 | −6.7 | +6.3 | |
| 2 | −2.3 | −5.7 | +3.4 | |
| 3 | −1.3 | −6.9 | +5.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Tallon Griekspoor serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% 85% | – | 46% 55% |
| 2 | 52% 63% | 10% 67% | 39% 92% |
| 3 | 46% 82% | 13% 100% | 42% 80% |
Set to set −0.09 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.24 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Fabio Fognini serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% 50% | 17% 0% | 48% 55% |
| 2 | 30% 44% | 23% 71% | 47% 71% |
| 3 | 45% 86% | 13% 0% | 42% 54% |
Set to set −0.38 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.31 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Tallon Griekspoor
5.3 points left on the table across 251 shots 2.12 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.17 pts
Fabio Fognini
5.6 points left on the table across 253 shots 2.23 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts