Acapulco · R32 · Hard · 23 Feb 2022
Benoit Paire v Daniil Medvedev
61–80 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Daniil Medvedev won 11.4 more points than Benoit Paire relative to what the serve alone predicted. Benoit Paire's biggest leaks: backhand execution −6.5, serve 1st execution −6.0, net execution −2.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Benoit Paire | Daniil Medvedev | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | +2.5 | −6.0 | −3.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −2.3 | −2.2 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −3.8 | −3.7 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.7 | −2.2 | −1.3 | −0.8 | +1.5 | +0.2 | +1.0 |
| Forehand | −1.4 | +1.8 | +1.0 | +1.4 | −2.1 | +1.4 | −1.1 | −1.9 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | +1.3 | −6.5 | −5.5 | −0.3 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.1 |
| Slice | −0.4 | −2.0 | +0.5 | −1.9 | −0.1 | −0.9 | +0.6 | −0.5 |
| Net | −1.2 | −0.2 | −2.9 | −4.3 | −0.6 | +0.2 | +2.2 | +1.7 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.4 | −0.7 | −0.1 | −0.7 | +0.8 | ±0.0 |
| Other | −0.2 | −1.1 | −0.6 | −1.8 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.4 |
| All shots | −2.9 | +2.8 | −17.1 | −17.2 | −3.8 | +1.5 | −3.6 | −5.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Benoit Paire | Daniil Medvedev | Net, Benoit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −9.4 | −4.7 | −4.7 | |
| 2 | −7.8 | −1.1 | −6.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Benoit Paire serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 74% 46% | 6% 0% | 20% 71% |
| 2 | 71% 47% | 7% 67% | 21% 56% |
Set to set −1.24 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.27 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Daniil Medvedev serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49% 61% | 11% 25% | 41% 73% |
| 2 | 48% 62% | – | 52% 71% |
Set to set +3.29 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.59 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Benoit Paire
11.5 points left on the table across 262 shots 4.38 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.99 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×4; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.88 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×4; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.79 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×12; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.68 pts
Daniil Medvedev
11.0 points left on the table across 256 shots 4.31 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 1.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×12; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.68 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.60 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.54 pts