Indian Wells · R64 · Hard · 12 Mar 2022
Daria Saville v Ons Jabeur
113–109 in points · Daria Saville won
Why it went the way it did
Daria Saville won 2.1 more points than Ons Jabeur relative to what the serve alone predicted. Ons Jabeur's biggest leaks: backhand execution −5.8, slice shot selection −3.9, forehand execution −3.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Daria Saville | Ons Jabeur | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −1.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −1.5 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −3.3 | −2.9 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +2.4 | +2.4 |
| Return | +0.4 | −2.0 | +0.1 | −1.6 | +0.4 | +1.0 | −0.3 | +1.1 |
| Forehand | +0.6 | +3.6 | −1.1 | +3.1 | +0.4 | +3.6 | −3.6 | +0.5 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | +0.4 | +1.7 | +1.9 | +0.9 | +1.0 | −5.8 | −3.9 |
| Slice | +0.8 | −10.0 | +2.0 | −7.2 | +0.1 | −3.9 | −0.7 | −4.5 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.2 | −0.7 | −0.6 | +0.5 | +1.0 | −1.5 | −0.1 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −2.1 | −0.2 | −2.2 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −1.4 | −1.9 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.5 |
| All shots | +0.4 | −9.9 | +1.7 | −7.8 | +2.5 | +2.2 | −14.5 | −9.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Daria Saville | Ons Jabeur | Net, Daria | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.4 | −6.7 | +5.3 | |
| 2 | −3.8 | −0.5 | −3.3 | |
| 3 | −2.6 | −2.7 | +0.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Daria Saville serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 58% | 47% 60% | 16% 80% |
| 2 | 49% 59% | 27% 67% | 24% 45% |
| 3 | 30% 60% | 55% 50% | 15% 40% |
Set to set +1.13 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.03 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Ons Jabeur serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 57% | 8% 33% | 53% 42% |
| 2 | 33% 63% | 19% 44% | 48% 74% |
| 3 | 36% 50% | 4% 0% | 61% 53% |
Set to set +0.40 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.20 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Daria Saville
10.9 points left on the table across 411 shots 2.65 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×12; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.72 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
Ons Jabeur
9.9 points left on the table across 440 shots 2.26 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×3; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle hit FH down the line ×15; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts