Istanbul · R32 · Clay · 20 Apr 2022
Nikola Bartunkova v Anastasia Potapova
36–60 in points · Anastasia Potapova won
Why it went the way it did
Anastasia Potapova won 12.2 more points than Nikola Bartunkova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Nikola Bartunkova's biggest leaks: backhand execution −2.0, return execution −1.7, forehand execution −1.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Nikola Bartunkova | Anastasia Potapova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.9 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.2 | −1.7 | −1.3 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.7 | +1.1 |
| Forehand | −0.4 | +0.9 | −1.6 | −1.1 | +0.6 | +1.3 | +1.1 | +3.0 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −2.0 | −1.9 | −0.3 | −0.3 | +1.5 | +1.0 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.5 | −0.2 | −1.8 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | +0.1 | −0.2 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.4 | +0.8 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.4 | +0.1 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | +0.4 | −0.3 |
| All shots | −0.4 | −0.4 | −6.3 | −7.0 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +4.6 | +5.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Nikola Bartunkova | Anastasia Potapova | Net, Nikola | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −5.4 | +2.3 | −7.7 | |
| 2 | −1.7 | +2.9 | −4.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Nikola Bartunkova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25% 0% | 25% 60% | 50% 30% |
| 2 | 20% 17% | 20% 50% | 60% 50% |
Within sets −1.36 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Anastasia Potapova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24% 75% | 47% 75% | 29% 60% |
| 2 | 52% 73% | 17% 40% | 31% 44% |
Within sets −0.41 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Nikola Bartunkova
4.7 points left on the table across 181 shots 2.61 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Anastasia Potapova
4.1 points left on the table across 180 shots 2.28 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH down the line rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×1; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts