Madrid Masters · R64 · Clay · 3 May 2022
Alexander Bublik v Miomir Kecmanovic
58–76 in points · Miomir Kecmanovic won
Why it went the way it did
Miomir Kecmanovic won 12.3 more points than Alexander Bublik relative to what the serve alone predicted. Alexander Bublik's biggest leaks: touch execution −3.5, forehand execution −3.5, net execution −1.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Alexander Bublik | Miomir Kecmanovic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | +1.5 | +7.2 | +9.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.3 | +0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | +0.6 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.8 |
| Return | −0.5 | −1.0 | −0.9 | −2.4 | −0.4 | −0.2 | +2.4 | +1.8 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +1.4 | −3.5 | −2.3 | −1.1 | +1.0 | +2.4 | +2.3 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −1.1 | −1.6 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +2.6 | +2.6 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.9 | +0.4 | −0.6 | −0.3 | −1.6 | +0.9 | −1.0 |
| Net | −1.3 | −0.1 | −1.9 | −3.4 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.6 | +1.0 |
| Touch | −0.4 | +0.3 | −3.5 | −3.6 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.6 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −2.1 | +1.1 | −4.3 | −5.3 | −1.7 | −0.8 | +9.5 | +7.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Alexander Bublik | Miomir Kecmanovic | Net, Alexander | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.6 | +4.4 | −7.0 | |
| 2 | −2.7 | +2.6 | −5.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Alexander Bublik serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 60% | 5% 100% | 50% 55% |
| 2 | 43% 75% | – | 57% 52% |
Set to set −1.53 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.09 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Miomir Kecmanovic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 67% | 4% 100% | 57% 100% |
| 2 | 40% 75% | 13% 75% | 47% 86% |
Within sets −1.00 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Alexander Bublik
6.9 points left on the table across 162 shots 4.27 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×3; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×2; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH drop shot down the line ×4; FH drop shot through the middle rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.29 pts
Miomir Kecmanovic
7.4 points left on the table across 145 shots 5.12 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.99 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.66 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.65 pts
- Serve +1: slice to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts