Rome Masters · R64 · Clay · 8 May 2022
Francesco Passaro v Cristian Garin
47–66 in points · Cristian Garin won
Why it went the way it did
Cristian Garin won 10.1 more points than Francesco Passaro relative to what the serve alone predicted. Francesco Passaro's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.5, forehand execution −2.9, serve 1st execution −1.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Francesco Passaro | Cristian Garin | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | −0.1 | −1.9 | −2.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −0.9 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
| Return | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +0.5 | +1.2 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +4.0 | −2.9 | +0.9 | +0.1 | +2.7 | +0.5 | +3.3 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | −0.4 | −0.7 | −1.3 | +0.4 | +1.0 | −0.1 | +1.4 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −3.5 | +0.2 | −3.3 | −0.1 | −0.8 | −0.9 | −1.9 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.3 | −1.3 | −0.7 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +0.8 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.4 | −0.9 | −1.2 | +0.1 | −0.7 | −0.1 | −0.8 |
| All shots | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −7.3 | −7.2 | +0.8 | +2.8 | −0.6 | +2.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Francesco Passaro | Cristian Garin | Net, Francesco | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −6.1 | +0.4 | −6.5 | |
| 2 | −1.1 | +2.5 | −3.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Francesco Passaro serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% 45% | 13% 20% | 34% 38% |
| 2 | 52% 45% | 24% 40% | 24% 40% |
Set to set +0.39 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.78 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Cristian Garin serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 50% | 19% 50% | 33% 57% |
| 2 | 55% 56% | – | 45% 67% |
Within sets −0.41 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Francesco Passaro
7.0 points left on the table across 272 shots 2.59 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
Cristian Garin
5.8 points left on the table across 268 shots 2.16 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts